Regional retail markets for petroleum products in Russia: prerequisites and features of formation. Exchange trading statistics

The petroleum products market is in first place among all others, since the scale of trade turnover (oil and derivative products) is enormous. This industry brings in up to three hundred billion dollars annually.

World petroleum products market

There are three main world oil markets:

• American;
• Asiatic;
• European.

It is worth considering each in more detail.

The American market uses only 27 percent of imports of the total, consuming approximately 30. The price of oil and gas is correlated with the economy and the volume of oil around the world.

The Asian market, in turn, imports 39 percent of oil and uses 29 percent for personal needs. It differs from other markets in that all resources are distributed unevenly.

Developed countries, compared to less developed and densely populated countries, have an excess of oil. The market is extremely unstable due to the fact that supplies from the main supplier (Persian Gulf) may arrive late. Ties with Russia on this issue are actively developing.

The European market imports 26 percent of all oil in the world and consumes 30%. The state of the market depends on the northern deposits, which are currently almost exhausted. Competition for European manufacturers comes from Russia, the East and Africa. Experts predict increased interaction between the European market and Iran and the Caspian oil fields.

Petroleum products market 2016-2017

Every person, from an ordinary worker to a financial analyst, is interested in the price of oil. Today, this issue is especially relevant, since in recent years the price of oil has fallen to 40 percent of its original cost.

Just two years ago, Russia's budget consisted of 40 percent of sales of oil and petroleum products. The volume of hydrocarbons imported to other countries reached 2/3 of the total amount produced.

In the coming months, the amount of oil supplied will decrease for many reasons. For example, the price of hydrocarbons on the foreign market will fall. Export duties will also fall in price, which will require the introduction of a different system of benefits. As a result, selling the same amount of oil, the state will receive less income.

Russian petroleum products market

IN last year The development scenario of the Russian market has changed - manufacturers began to compete for their consumers. This happened because the main oil refining plants, which were previously under repair, began operating with renewed vigor. In addition, JSC Gazprom began to actively sell its oil and gasoline reserves. By this time, more than two million tons of diesel fuel had been accumulated, and this exceeded the amount last year by several hundred thousand.

The market needed a price reduction, only it would help reduce the premiums of the domestic market to export parity. However, in recent months, oil has slightly increased in price, as it has become profitable for investors to invest money and boost the oil market. The situation was affected by the new dollar exchange rate and breakdowns at the Shell oil plant in the Netherlands, which caused the price in Europe to increase sharply.

Today, the petroleum products market is characterized by a discount of the Russian market in relation to the world market. The tactics of sellers have also changed - instead of reducing the price for the sake of the buyer, the priority has become to increase it.

Trends in the development of the Russian petroleum products market

In the fall of 2017, due to increased export prices, prices for oil and derivative products will increase. It is unknown how quickly the increase will occur and how market trends will change.

The fact is that the price will grow non-linearly: sometimes increasing, sometimes stopping. There will be an opportunity to sell oil on the world market at a higher price. In addition, Russian companies were able to raise prices within the country in the spring, despite the general decline.

Petroleum products sales market

Petroleum products can be sold in several ways, the most popular of which are: export to other countries, sales on the domestic market and sales through the retail network.

Less popular ways are sales from refineries and lubricants, bunkering, aviation refueling and bitumen business. It will be much more profitable for Russia to export oil and sell it abroad, which is what oil refining companies mainly do.

Wholesale and retail market of petroleum products

The global petroleum products market is a trading platform that sets prices (wholesale) for other companies selling petroleum products around the world.

Gasoline, diesel fuel, kerosene are all light petroleum products, and fuel oil with tar (dark) is the basis of the entire range, the price of which is determined by the economy and social policy of all major countries.

The retail market is characterized by the connection of contractual relations with the wholesale market, that is, the supply of petroleum products directly from the plant. It includes the following components: refueling ships (bunker fuel), refueling aircraft with kerosene, and selling gasoline to car gas stations.

Prices in retail markets change rapidly due to inflation rates. Price dynamics sometimes overtake it or, conversely, lag behind. However, the trend persists for a long time.

You can learn more about trends in the Russian and global petroleum products market at the Neftegaz exhibition.

During the exploitation of oil fields, the problem of the efficiency of the level of production of this resource increases significantly. This process is economically significant for the whole world.

To ensure that the global oil industry does not stand in one place, but improves all the time, experts propose creating certain conditions that will be based on organizational and economic areas. The last five-year plan showed that reserves began to be renewed two times slower than before. This fact confirms that if we continue at the same pace, then very soon oil resources will begin to be depleted.

Problems of our time

Nowadays, up to 1,100 oil fields have been developed. There are more than 150 thousand wells operating on their territory. In order to oil industry developed and moved forward every year it is necessary to invest about 10 billion in US currency.

This is a large amount, so it has become important to intensify innovation and investment activities at enterprises in this industry. All depleted oil fields should be given over to small enterprises for development. After all, it is precisely such enterprises that provide 10% of oil production. They are capable of showing good results.

The modern oil market has become a good subject for various studies. Research is mainly aimed at economic relations. They constantly appear along with the process of evolution in the global oil market. This process is connected with the complete globalization of the economy throughout the world.

Considering the oil market, the main directions of its development are determined. Specialists in this industry constantly conduct certain observations and analyses.

A large amount of information that reveals the oil market from all sides can be found, if desired, in the following sources:

Regulatory documents;
Monographs;
Educational literature;
Articles written based on various studies;
Analytical reports.

World class oil market

Despite the 21st century, oil remains the most important resource in the energy sector, and most importantly, it is the largest object that is widely used in trade between countries.

That is why the oil market is regulated by regulations.

According to such acts, powers are distributed for geological studies, use, underground storage of oil and similar processes. It is this kind of documentation that establishes the availability or amount of benefits for all oil business entities.

Russia has set itself goals that it must achieve by 2020:

Determine the ways by which a new qualitative state of the fuel and energy complex can be achieved;

Calculate the increase in competitiveness;
To form strong energy policy mechanisms in the state.

When achieving your goals, it is worth taking into account the results of forecasts.
In 2006, the world produced 3.8 billion tons of oil. If we convert this into barrels, we get 30 billion such barrels for each year.

This volume is enough for use for as many as four decades.

(table No. 1)

World class oil market

Notes:

Reserves are shown in billions of barrels;
Production is tabulated in volumes of thousands of barrels per day;
The number of years for which the extracted oil should last was determined by dividing reserves / production.

The table shows that the oil that has already been explored will last for consumers for a period of up to 40 years, and that which is waiting its turn - depending on the demands of the planet's population (the period can range from 10 to 50 years).

Oil consumption has increased - if previously it was 20 billion barrels per year, now it is 30. This jump occurred over a period of 35 years.

Of the total volumes of world oil reserves, Russia owns resources in the amount of 13% (some sources indicate that only 6.2%). But, nevertheless, the Russian Federation as an oil exporter has reached the forefront. Next to it is only Saudi Arabia. Almost all energy resources exported by Russia are used in European countries. But, taking into account the data shown in the tables, we conclude that in the future, most likely, Iraq and Venezuela will become leaders in the oil market. It is in their territories that the largest amount of oil reserves are stored.

Experts predict that after 2020, oil production will begin to decline. Natural resources also tend to run out. Therefore, it is in the 20s of the new century that new energy sources will be developed and mastered.

Regulatory framework

A big problem of our time is that the legislation of almost all subjects of activity in the oil market does not meet the standards.

For many years, legal acts of economic entities engaged in business activities have been classified according to generally accepted criteria:

General action.

They are used in relation to all subjects. The field of activity in this case has no influence.

The rise in prices did not stop in March and May. The cost of one barrel no longer fell below $100. The maximum was recorded in 2008 on July 11. It crossed the level of 147 US dollars per barrel of oil.

Experts began to give their assessment of the current situation and, as a result, their opinions diverged into two camps:

United States invasion of Iran;

Oil crisis (fields are depleted).

But already in October 2008, bidders were shocked again - the price was reduced to 67 dollars. This figure was the annual minimum.
I would like to remind you that the rise or fall of the dollar depends on the price of oil. This comes from the fact that the United States is the largest consumer of the world oil market.

Structure of the Russian oil and gas industry complex

The petroleum industry consists of the following components:

Oil producing enterprises;

Plants that process oil;
Enterprises responsible for transportation and petroleum products.

The industry is based on 28 giant oil refining plants and factories that produce oils. Oil pipelines stretch over a distance of up to 50 thousand km, and oil product pipelines over 19.3 thousand km.

The structure consists of nine largest oil companies. The leaders in this list are occupied by Lukoil, Rosneft and Surgutneftegaz.

The transportation of oil and oil industry products is carried out by the joint-stock companies Transnefteproduct and Transneft.

Irreversible process

The oil market is being formed under the influence of globalization processes in the economy of the whole world. Oil prices, together with the dollar exchange rate, constantly put pressure on the growth of the global economy.

Along with the rise in prices, it begins to stabilize. This factor forces people operating in this area to look for innovative methods of development. A depressive state is created, which pushes for the creation of innovations.

But such a process, launched at the global level, requires attention and effort from each state.

The global process will provoke not only a colossal increase in the world economy, but will also entail the destruction of established sectors of the economy.

Forms of trading in the oil market

Two forms of trade have spread in the world oil market:

Contractual. The buyer agrees with the seller that deliveries will be made over a certain period of time. Prices in such trading are most often also fixed. Until recently, all contracts were signed for a period of 2 years or more. Now the terms have become much shorter and it is possible to set flexible prices.

Spot. This form provides for short-term transactions. Most often, this is how one tanker of oil is sold. The price is set according to the fact. Most deals these days are concluded on these terms.

The oil market consists of the following participants:

Large companies that practice two forms of trading;

Independent oil companies;
Oil traders.

Due to the fact that nowadays the majority of sales are occupied by the spot form of sales, I would like to list the large spot markets:

Rotterdam (this form of trade originated here);
Singapore;
Mediterranean.

(table No. 2)

1. Oil products market in the Moscow region.

1.1. Geographical boundaries of the market.

The geographical boundaries of the studied wholesale petroleum products market are determined by the Moscow region (Moscow and the Moscow region) due to the absence of some vertically integrated oil companies (VIOCs) separate accounting sales of automobile fuel in the capital and Moscow region.

1.2. Product boundaries of the product market.

The product boundaries of the commodity market are light petroleum products, namely motor gasoline and diesel fuel (hereinafter referred to as motor fuel).

2. Main characteristics of the retail market for automobile fuel in Moscow and the region.

Currently, there are 717 commercial and 123 departmental gas stations operating in Moscow. The total fleet of operating fuel dispensers exceeds 2,400 units. 130 companies own commercial gas stations.

Integration processes in the automotive fuel retail market continue. At the beginning of 2006, about 63% of Moscow gas stations were united into large networks with more than 20 gas stations. A year later, at the beginning of 2007, networks with more than 20 gas stations accounted for 68.1%. The number of gas stations owned by companies that own 5 or more gas stations was 75% at the beginning of 2006, and 76.5% at the beginning of 2007. At the same time, there are 80 operators operating in the capital’s retail petroleum products market, owning one gas station.

Oil companies are actively developing the Moscow retail market. In addition, the fame of their trademarks allows them to receive additional income through commercial concession agreements with formally independent legal entities.

According to the data presented, 390 gas stations, i.e. 54% of commercial gas stations located in Moscow were owned by oil companies and worked with them on lease terms, as well as on the basis of commercial concession agreements. Thus, the remaining gas stations, which make up a significant part of Moscow gas stations (46%), are completely independent. This division of the market allows us to maintain a competitive environment and protect consumers from unreasonable increases in retail prices for petroleum products.

3. Main characteristics of the wholesale market for automobile fuel in Moscow and the region.

Currently, a feature of the oil products market in the Moscow region continues to be the presence of several large wholesale market participants: Moscow Oil Company OJSC, Lukoil OJSC, NGK Slavneft OJSC, Yukos OJSC, Tyumen Oil Company OJSC, Sibneft OJSC ", JSC "Tatneft".

In the wholesale sector of the Moscow petroleum products market during the reporting period, negative dynamics continued to be observed. The price decline was observed until February 6, when information appeared about changes in prices at the Ufa group of refineries. Changes in Ufa prices traditionally have a significant impact on the price situation in the wholesale sector of the petroleum products market in the central part of Russia. It was the rise in prices for the products of Ufa dealers that became a signal for the most efficient players in the capital’s market, who hastened to adjust their prices upward. Thus, as of February 7, the picture of the Moscow fuel market was characterized by multidirectional changes in wholesale prices. Despite the fact that some companies have already recovered from the Ufa growth, most companies continue to reduce prices, as a result of which the average values ​​have maintained negative dynamics. In addition to this, it is worth noting that some companies have completely stopped selling fuel, since the ambiguous situation on the market does not allow us to clearly predict further changes in the situation. The main question currently occupying market participants is the question of whether the increase in prices at Ufa and Salavat is a signal of a change in the trend from downward to upward, or is this just a short-term correction.

However, the view of a sharp change in the direction of price movements is most likely premature. The fact is that there are currently no problems with the availability of free products on the market, while the level of demand remains quite low. Thus, the most likely thing in the short term is a slight increase in prices as part of the correction.

However, a different outcome is also possible. The export duty for February-March is set at $179.7/t, which is significantly lower than the January value. This may lead to an increase in the volume of exported oil, which will negatively affect the volume of petroleum product production at Russian refineries. In addition to this, the duty on petroleum products is also set at a fairly low level ($133.4/t for light petroleum products and $71.8/t for dark petroleum products). As a result, subject to a further increase in prices on the European petroleum products market, export flows of Russian fuel oil and diesel fuel will increase significantly, somewhat relieving the domestic market. We can already see confirmation of this scenario today, since there are practically no free volumes of fuel oil available from Moscow market operators.

As a result, we consider the most likely scenario for the development of events in the near future to be some strengthening of prices in the wholesale sector of the Moscow petroleum products market. This strengthening will be more corrective than fundamental, however

An increase in the export of oil and petroleum products from Russia will help consolidate prices at the achieved, higher levels. A further rise in prices will be possible if the upward trend in the European market of petroleum products (mainly distillates) continues, which will ensure the maintenance of high volumes of fuel exports from Russia.

4. Generalized data.

1. The wholesale and retail markets for automobile fuel in the Moscow region are competitive. In Moscow and the Moscow region there continues to be a large number of participants in the wholesale and retail markets for automobile fuel. The values ​​of market concentration coefficients characterize these markets as low-concentrated. There are no barriers to entry for new participants into these markets.

2. The main trend in the development of the wholesale market in Moscow and the Moscow region is the competition between vertically integrated oil companies to strengthen their positions in the market.

3. Integration processes are taking place in the Moscow retail automobile fuel market, including a decrease in the total number of market participants due to the takeover of gas stations of small companies by larger companies. Thus, only 19 companies own 548 Moscow gas stations. At the same time, 80 operators of the retail gasoline and diesel fuel market out of 130 operating in the Moscow market own one gas station.

4. In Moscow, more than 46% of retail market operators are independent. This division of the market allows us to maintain a competitive environment and protects consumers from unreasonable increases in retail prices.

5. Informing the Department about petitions and notifications received by the federal antimonopoly body from economic entities involved in the supply of petroleum products in Moscow and the Moscow region is not complete, which makes it difficult to study this market.

6. When refining oil, the yield of light petroleum products from the processed oil, as well as the quality of gasoline and diesel fuel, does not meet international standards. In order for oil refining enterprises to reach the world level, it is necessary to re-equip them and equip them with progressive modern technologies.

7. Due to the fact that the tax on oil production is uniform, regardless of whether it is for domestic consumption or for export, it seems appropriate to differentiate this tax, i.e. establish different tax rates for extracted oil, which is processed for domestic consumption and for export.

The results of the analysis of this market are presented in abbreviated form due to the need to comply with Article 15 of the Law “On Competition...”.

“Russian Wholesale Petroleum Products Market” is a daily review of the Russian large-scale petroleum products market. In each issue:

• Detailed review conditions on the Russian petroleum products market and price forecasts;
• Analysis of exchange trading in petroleum products and the situation on the over-the-counter market;
• Export parity for Russian petroleum products;
• Schedule of actual repairs at the refinery;
• Statistical data on oil refining, production of petroleum products, their shipments to the domestic market, as well as marketable balances of motor gasoline and diesel fuel;
• Distribution 2 times a day: before 10:00 Moscow time, the export parity for the previous trading day and a digest of market news are sent out, before 19:00 Moscow time, a release in pdf format and an application with the results of exchange trading in Excel format are sent out.

LPG wholesale market

“Wholesale LPG Market” is a daily overview of the Russian liquefied gas market. In each issue:

• Over-the-counter large-scale and small-scale wholesale prices for LPG;
• Export parity for Russian LPG;
• A detailed overview of the Russian LPG market conditions and price forecasts (published on Tuesdays and Fridays);
• Analysis of LPG exchange trading and the situation in the over-the-counter market;
• Schedule of actual repairs at LPG manufacturing plants;
• Weekly application with rail shipments of LPG to the domestic market and for export in Excel format.

Oil products market in the Moscow region

“Oil products market in the Moscow region” is a daily review of the regional oil products market in Moscow and the Moscow region. In each issue:

• Over-the-counter and exchange small-scale wholesale prices of petroleum products on the Moscow market;
• Detailed overview of the petroleum products market conditions in Moscow and the Moscow region, price forecasts;
• Exchange prices of petroleum products adjusted to oil depots, taking into account costs;
• Calculation of the margin of small wholesale and retail sales of gasoline and diesel fuel;
• Statistics of exchange trading in petroleum products on the bases of Central Russia;
• Information about the oil products market in the Voronezh, Ryazan, Smolensk and Yaroslavl regions.

Daily monitoring of small wholesale prices of petroleum products

The independent agency “Commodity Market Analytics” carries out daily monitoring of small-scale wholesale prices of petroleum products in all regions of Russia.

Small wholesale prices for light and dark petroleum products are available in the Small Wholesale module of the AT “COMMOD”.

Key Benefits service:

• Update information in real time. Small wholesale prices are broadcast to Users immediately after they are entered into the database;
• Prices for future dates. If the Agency has learned the prices that will be introduced in the coming days, this information is immediately broadcast to Users;
• Convenient user interface.

Exchange trading statistics

The independent agency “Commodity Market Analytics” has detailed statistics of exchange trading. Data is accumulated daily and is available to the Agency’s clients in the Analytics module of AT “COMMOD”, as well as in Excel format.

Statistics of exchange trading on SPIMEX are available in the form:

• Anonymized registers of exchange transactions;
• Summary anonymized trading results for instruments;
• Results of exchange trading with the selection of vertically integrated oil companies sellers.

In addition to trading statistics on St. Petersburg International Exchange of Exchange, the Agency’s clients have access to data from the St. Petersburg exchange and the e-Oil electronic trading platform.

To sign up for a trial subscription, register on the website commod.ru

According to information from Viktor Kostyukov, an expert at the Algorithm Fuel Integrator company, there was a collapse in stock prices on the Russian oil products market. The fall in prices in this segment, which started last week, continues this week. For three days, prices for products from the country's oil refineries were reduced daily by 450–500 rubles per ton. According to Kostyukov, such a collapse has no analogues in the entire history of trading.

The downward trend, according to the expert, has three reasons. As usual, in December an additional flow of petroleum products poured onto the market from the production program of oil refineries for January next year. On the eve of the New Year holidays, refineries are rushing to provide their capacities with the necessary register of applications for unloading goods. The second factor is the “hand of the regulator”: the authorities became worried against the backdrop of record exchange prices for petroleum products in the fall of this year. “It would be possible for antimonopoly officials not to pay much attention to the exchange’s tricks, but the trouble is that after the exchange, prices at gas stations went up into the sky, and this is a social aspect. The FAS commandment “inflation plus” turned out to have three pluses. For 11 months, Rosstat calculated inflation at 2.09%, and gas station prices have surpassed it threefold, gasoline has risen in price by 6%, and diesel is rising to 8%,” notes Kostyukov. According to the expert, independent gas station chains also feel uncomfortable, where margins have dropped to values ​​close to unprofitable. Letters of appeal “to restore order” were sent to the FAS and the president of the country...

“The question arises, what benchmarks are oil companies targeting? It is impossible to answer. Firstly, we do not know what instructions the FAS issued oil companies, except for the vague “increase the volume of supply of goods on the stock exchange.” Secondly, buyers on the stock exchange play their own game: at falling prices they can reduce purchases in the hope of catching the bottom. This practice of deferred demand will only accelerate the fall in prices. But it usually ends with a sharp turn in the opposite direction. The two remaining weeks of trading may bring unexpected surprises to exchange participants. Will they be welcome gifts or disappointments - this is the pre-New Year’s intrigue,” asks Viktor Kostyukov.

Transaction tables on the St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange (SPbIMEX) turned red at the beginning of the week. According to the Algorithm Fuel Integrator company, AI95 gasoline fell in price at refineries by an average of 500 rubles to 43.6 thousand rubles per ton. The maximum decline in this segment was recorded at the Astrakhan Oil Refinery, where the price decreased by 1.2 thousand rubles to 44.5 thousand rubles per ton. Transaction prices for AI92 gasoline fell on December 11 by an average of 300 rubles per ton to 42.31 thousand rubles per ton against a decline of 600 rubles per ton last Friday. The volume of transactions exceeded 32 thousand tons, and this is a record for 2017. The previous record was set on December 16, 2016, when the volume of transactions with AI92 gasoline reached almost 37 thousand tons. Since last Wednesday, prices for transactions with winter classes of diesel fuel have been creeping down. Prices for jet fuel have plummeted. “This segment has been inexplicably rising in price since the summer, and suddenly, in anticipation of increased demand for air tickets, it also unmotivatedly went down. There is only one version - the producers are carrying out the will of the FAS,” says Kostyukov.

Small wholesale to the stock exchange

On December 12, trading was launched at St. Petersburg International Trading Exchange with the participation of Transneft as an operator of commodity supplies. The company received this status from the state at the end of October this year. According to Deputy Head of the Federal Antimonopoly Service of Russia Anatoly Golomolzin, trading with the participation of a commodity supply operator is a new quality of operation of the exchange market, which makes it possible to increase the number of regions where it is possible to trade petroleum products at all levels, including at the small wholesale level. “This is fundamentally important from the point of view of developing competition. The project increases the role of the Transneft company as an infrastructure organization that creates conditions for the delivery of exchange goods sold by any seller to anywhere in the country,” Golomolzin noted, speaking at a press conference at Interfax.

The project, implemented using a new digital system, makes it possible to bring small wholesale transactions to exchange trading. The volume of a lot when working on these bases through a commodity supply operator is 10 tons (with a standard lot in the “Petroleum Products” section of SPbMTSB measuring 60 tons). The development of the small wholesale segment, according to the plans of the exchange and the Federal Antimonopoly Service, should contribute to transparent pricing in the fuel market.

For now, Transneft provides the opportunity to purchase petroleum products on the basis of exchange supplies of St. Petersburg International Trading Exchange, including auto loading: LPDS Volodarskaya, LPDS Voronezh, NP Nikolskoye, NP Bryansk, LPDS Cherkassy, ​​LPDS Krasny Bor, LPDS "Belgorod". Further expansion of these bases throughout the country is planned.

Margin and reverse excise tax

At the International Conference “Russian Petroleum Products Market: Current State and Prospects for Further Development -2017” held last week, Deputy Minister of Energy of Russia Kirill Molodtsov estimated the current volumes of oil refining in the country at 280 million tons. According to forecasts, the average depth of refining processes at Russian refineries next year will reach a record 82.2% (81.4% in 2017). By 2020 it will reach the level of 85%. The production of light products in 2018 will be 64% (62.1% in 2017): gasoline production volumes will increase to 40.1 million tons (39 million tons in the current year) and diesel fuel - 79 million tons in 2018 ( 76.6 million tons in the current one).

According to the concept of the Ministry of Energy, the state should support domestic oil refining by introducing a reverse excise tax, which will increase the margins of Russian refineries. Previously, the management of several Russian vertically integrated oil companies criticized the current taxation system in relation to domestic downstream, which led to low income figures for oil refineries in the country. But, according to Molodtsov, today in the Russian Federation about 90 million tons of oil are processed with high-margin profitability.

The reverse excise tax mechanism on petroleum products will have a declarative principle. It provides for the payment of compensation to modernized Russian refineries from the excise tax they paid for each ton of oil processed. It is expected that this measure to support Russian refineries will be considered by the government commission of the fuel and energy complex in the first quarter of 2018.

Nina Markova